Lateral Intent Error’s Impact on Aircraft Prediction

Unprecedented global initiatives have begun to redesign the aviation systems that provide for the efficient and safe transport of civilian aircraft. Success of these initiatives is only possible through global collaborations that allow broader analyses and data to be shared. The paper reports on just such a study that examines the lateral deviations from the automation’s known horizontal route of flight to the actual aircraft position. These errors are due to the typical navigation and surveillance errors, as well as the larger atypical errors that are mainly caused by purposeful changes in the route of flight that are not updated. Large data analyses within the ground automation systems of the United States and Europe indicated errors from 20 to 30 nautical miles are common, while airborne Australian and more samples in the United States had errors from 100 to 800 times smaller. Further analysis illustrated the direct impact these errors have on safety critical separation management functions. It was concluded that airborne derived data via Automatic Dependent Surveillance Contract reports offer a major opportunity to improve the groundbased automation functions. Keywordsaircraft intent; lateral deviaton; trajectory predicton; conflict prediction; conflict probe; aviation automation; ADS-C